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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          12/07 11:40

   Mixed Tones Send Livestock Trading in Various Directions

   The cash cattle market hasn't seen any attention but it's likely that some 
early bids could develop Wednesday afternoon. 

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst


   The livestock complex is trading mixed into Wednesday's afternoon as the 
live cattle market aims to keep its modest rally through the day's close, but 
with corn trending higher, feeders are keeping with their lower descend. 
Meanwhile, the lean hog complex is trading mostly lower into Wednesday's 
afternoon as midday pork cutout values show a steep loss. March corn is up 4 
1/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is up $7.70. The Dow Jones 
Industrial Average is down 2.20 points.


   The live cattle complex is meekly trying to trade higher, but at this point, 
the market's success is limited. The spot February contract crashed lower 
Tuesday afternoon to the point where the market closed below its 100-day moving 
average. One would hope that the market would be able to find some technical 
support, but in order for traders to keep the technical price elevated, they'll 
need to see something positive from the market's fundamentals. After having a 
tough start to the week, boxed beef prices are trading higher at Wednesday's 
midday, but until we see consistently higher beef prices, I wouldn't be quick 
to say an official bottom has been found. The cash cattle market hasn't seen 
any action at this point, but business could begin to develop later Wednesday 
afternoon, or potentially wait until Thursday. Southern feedlots are asking 
$156 to $157, and asking prices are still not established in the North.

   The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction held Wednesday reported eight lots (six lots 
in Texas and two lots in Colorado), totaling 1,023 head of cattle, none of 
which sold. Opening prices were at $153, high bids had a range of $153 to 
$153.50, but none of these bids met reserve prices of $155 to $156.

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $8.38 ($251.03) and select up $2.22 
($221.36) with a movement of 88 loads (48.37 loads of choice, 15.00 loads of 
select, 10.20 loads of trim and 14.81 loads of ground beef).


   The volatile nature of the feeder cattle complex hasn't lessened whatsoever 
as the live cattle market neglects to lend any support, and the corn complex is 
pushing a modest $0.05 rally into Wednesday's noon hour. The market's saving 
grace could be the cash cattle market if feedlots are indeed able to trade 
cattle higher again this week, but at this point, that's still an unknown 
variable as no cash cattle trade has developed. January feeders are down $0.22 
at $181.57, March feeders are down $0.30 at $183.85 and April feeders are down 
$0.27 at $187.05.


   The lean hog complex is trading mostly lower into Wednesday's afternoon as 
the market notices the slight uptick in cash prices, but that's not enough 
support to offset the lower waning pork cutout value. December lean hogs are up 
$0.27 at $82.55, February lean hogs are down $0.72 at $86.12 and April lean 
hogs are down $0.75 at $92.05. The midday pork cutout report has bellies down 
$20.39 which could be extremely detrimental to the afternoon's cutout value.

   The projected lean hog index for Dec. 6 is down $0.16 at $82.78, and the 
actual index for Dec. 5 is up $0.15 at $82.94. Hog prices on the Daily Direct 
Morning Hog Report are higher, up $3.18 with a weighted average of $85.31, 
ranging from $81.00 to $87.50 on 18,659 head and a five-day rolling average of 
$84.38. Pork cutouts total 224.49 loads with 195.14 loads of pork cuts and 
27.35 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $4.48, $85.34.  

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com


   Cattlemen are eager for supply and demand mechanics to swing their way, but 
the market isn't completely free of hurdles as bearish concerns about the U.S. 
and global economies loom. Hear DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart's thoughts 
on the 2023 cattle market at the all-virtual DTN Ag Summit on Dec. 12-13. Full 
details available at http://www.dtn.com/agsummit

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